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Healthcare forecasting for an uncertain 2021

by insights_blog_admin

The year 2020 has been exceptionally challenging. A healthcare industry that battled in the dark during the initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a forecasting system that will shed light on the uncertainties ahead. A broadened field of view can surely assist the health care organizations to be on-guard for shifts in the economy, insurance market, consumer usage, buyer conduct, and future waves of contagious diseases. The transformation which is crystallizing in the new normal and the journey that awaits the next normal offers new avenues, constraints, use cases, and learnings that will fast-track the healthcare sector to a completely unanticipated future.

WHY IT MATTERS

The capability to forecast the future could be as important to healthcare survival in 2021 as a mask may be for slowing the spread. There is a need for real-time insights to create the healthcare industry’s forecasting system to alert healthcare leaders to the shifting fronts that may have a major impact on business. As the pandemic experience varies at different times across different regions of the country, local partnerships between health providers, payers, and community groups, the government agencies can help power a more informed response.

As expected, 2021 will largely be molded by “the disruptive forces of COVID-19,” according to IDC, which sees the pandemic as having changed everything across all verticals now and into the future. Some of IDC’s 2021 predictions were:

  • The economic and clinical vulnerability resulting from the pandemic will drive 20% of healthcare organizations to embrace integrated care to improve outcomes during 2021.
  • By the end of 2021, seven of the 10 leading wrist-worn wearables companies will have released algorithms capable of early detection of potential signs of infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and the flu.
  • Accelerated by the emergence of the new coronavirus, investments by life science companies in digital initiatives to support the utilization of real-world evidence globally will double by 2022.

There is a half-decade of health systems grappling with and learning from the COVID-19 disruption of the past year. While the greatest change-drivers yet are the internet of things (IoT), AI, and other fourth industrial revolution fields,their effect was felt in unexpected ways in comparison to what one may have foreseen.

With a new coronavirus variant afoot and an uncertain 12 months ahead, MobiHealthNews has assembled predictions for the year 2021by digital health innovators on the key themes that will influence the digital health industry during a potentially disruptive year ahead.

GREATERINCLINATION

A CEO flight simulator relies on advanced analytics and modeling

All domains ought to have improved knowledge of patients to comprehend whether transportation needs or work routines will keep them from following through on treatment, to anticipate when patient conditions may be declining, or to decide how to best connect pharmaceuticals to people

The regional forecast requires community leadership

No one association holds all the information that is needed to paint a full picture of the future.

Understanding where theeconomic, buyer, and health data converge helps healthcare organizations structure accurate forecasts so they can determine where to target resources to encourage healthy lifestyles in the future, not just during the pandemic.

Forecasting a better, more equitable health future

Population simulations can enable healthcare leaders to consider how interventionscan maximize the impacts of their investments.But they can also look to the individual details of a person’s life to better understand, for example, how to communicate with an elderly asthma patient without a smartphone during the pandemic. Such tools could identify those most at risk of poor outcomes, so organizations can develop targeted community responses.

IMPLICATIONS

  • Develop the right sensors to alert leaders to important shifts ahead.
  • Reconnect patients to the healthcare system with improved data insights.
  • Fuel forecasts with real-time, local data that contextualize people’s lives.
  • Convene regional collaborations.

WRAP UP

With regards to forecasting and planning, one has clarity about what has previously occurred in the health care domain. However, they are not as efficient at foreseeing what is in store for them moving ahead. The overall aim of forecasting is to assist the management with efficient decision- making and execution of plans. In planning and forecasting, it may also be said, “the devil is the details.” The objective is enhanced decision making, and once the complexity of analysis obscures the clarity of action plans and the expected healthcare environment, forecasting becomes a consuming process rather than a contributing tool.

The challenge lies in knowing when enough analysis is enough. Informed, timely management decision making and successful strategy execution can happen with a collaborative planning process that employs correlating indicators and balanced use of analytics.

In 2021, healthcare leaders should not just rest on predictions from the trends in the past; they should also be willing to build and monitor their radars to pivot when the environment changes.

References

https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/what-expect-2021-and-beyond-idc-offers-10-healthcare-predictions

https://ww2.frost.com/event/calendar/global-healthcare-predictions-2021-recalibrate-your-strategy-to-excel-in-the-healthcare-overhaul/

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/technology/future-healthcare-payments-predictions-2021

https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/health-industries/assets/pwc-us-health-top-health-issues-2021.pdf

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